UK politics has undergone an evident swing to the left in recent times: many feel betrayed and let down by a Conservative government that has been in power for over a decade. The underwhelming deliverance of Brexit, the disastrous mini-budget, Partygate and Rwanda Bill are just a few of the failings of the Conservative Party during their years in power. Many believe it is inevitable that the next general election will yield an emphatic Labour victory. Yet Britain is a complete anomaly in the political trends of Europe: many countries are finding themselves drastically swinging to the right of the political spectrum instead.
The magnitude of this shift is remarkable: Viktor Orban in Hungary was re-elected as Hungarian prime minister for his fourth straight term in 2022; far-right leader Georgia Meloni claimed victory in Italy’s election in the same year; the controversial AfD and Vox parties in Germany and Spain respectively have both gained popularity in recent years; in France, President Macron was taken to the wire in the 2022 general election by the hardline right leader Marine Le Pen. And the trend looks likely to continue, with European Parliament elections in June this year as well as a French general election in three years’ time where it is highly likely that Le Pen will gain the presidency. The key question we must ask when regarding these results and prospects is why people are moving to the right: how have these politicians been able to gain power? Looking back over the last century, extremist politicians have succeeded in gaining power due to extreme circumstances and collective public anger: the Nazis in Germany for instance transitioned from a tiny party barely holding itself together to gaining complete power in the space of 15 years, mainly due to the catastrophic impacts of the Great Depression and a public enraged by the indecisiveness of the former government. Similarly, huge inflation and economic recession has hit Europe (particularly due to the war in Ukraine, a very relevant topic in this debate) in modern times. When people lose faith in much more neutral governments, they turn to the extremes to seek quick fixes.
The promises of far-right leaders are very similar from country to country: abortion, immigration, and LGBTQ rights are frequent topics that far-right politicians promise to crack down on. However, perhaps the most relevant topic is, as aforementioned, the war in Ukraine. Since boycotting Russian goods because of the war has partially caused economic problems in much of Europe, far-right leaders often criticize the war in Ukraine, some going as far as to say that Russia was justified in its invasion. Countries such as Hungary and Serbia take this stance to varying degrees. The continued support of Ukraine from countries in the European Union that are swinging right particularly is vital: a united front against Russia must be maintained for international sanctions to work – just one country yielding to Russia undermines the sanctions and could collapse the complete system.
Now to what extent should we be worried: the scale of the shift to extremism has terrified many and the statistics and figures are certainly daunting. There is no doubt that the shift has gained too much traction to be written off as something that will fizzle out to nothingness. These far-right leaders intend to stay. The most important thing to happen in addressing the shift is the actions of the European Union. It must confirm its identity, is it completely an economic trade organisation? Or should it actively seek to promote and defend the very things that the far-right seek to bring down: immigration and LGBT rights for instance? For the stance of the European Union at the moment is one in the middle of the two – while critical of these far-right countries, they are not active in seeking to protect those the far-right are attempting to bring down: there is a school of thought that if the European Union are creating tension with the far-right anyway, why should they not fully commit to protecting these people? However, others would believe that the European Union is sticking its heads much too far out and should return to what their organisation was admittedly created to be: a completely trade focused organization. The debate on what the European Union should do highlights the difficulty in dealing with far-right groups: you either risk inflaming the situation or let them do what they want and face the repercussions. While it is not certain that the European Union will completely go back to a trade organization, it is almost definite that they will not extend their criticism and act.
This may paint a very dire picture of Europe’s fate, yet some would argue that the far-right is unable to sustain a long-lasting government without becoming less extreme in policy: the need for extreme situations to get them into power in the first place can prove to be their downfall. There are only so many issues in society that can be rectified by quick fixes: once this becomes clear the public often loses faith in the far-right. We’ve seen this very example with Georgia Meloni in Italy: while coming across as the most far-right Italian politician since Mussolini in her election campaign, when faced with the realities of government, she became much less extreme than people feared her to be. The hope is that other far-right leaders will become less extreme, or the people will lose interest in their policies of hate and ‘instant action’. Therefore, perhaps letting events unfold is not the worst decision.
Looking at our own country again, while there has been an overall move to the left, we can still see a shift that follows the general trend of Europe. Within the right, there is increasing tension between extreme far-right leaders and much more centrist politicians. Assuming Labour indeed wins the next election, it seems that the far-right will prevail to take control of the opposition: we could face the prospect of a far-right government ourselves in the next decade.
Written by Oliver Whitaker-Jones, Year 10