The term ‘Geopolitics’ was first coined by British geographer Sir Halford Mackinder and Swedish political scientist Rudolf Kjellén in ‘The Geographical Pivot of History’ and ‘Staten som lifsform’ respectively. It is used to understand and predict the political behaviours of one country towards others based on geographical factors.
This essay will be discussing the geopolitical dilemma India is facing as it wants to ‘maximise its economic relationship with China. But [] will also be opposed to any move by China to become the predominant power in the Indo-Pacific’ (Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs).
China is India’s largest trading partner with ‘$118.4 billion [...] two-way commerce’ (Business Standard, 2024). India is also heavily reliant of China for its supplies, its dependence on China for 6 critical minerals - bismuth, lithium, silicon, titanium, tellurium and graphite - exceed 40% (The Hindu, 2024). Any attempts in the current situation to severe trade with China would be catastrophic for India, resulting in poor quality products, increasingly expensive prices and potential shortages of goods and a negative impact on domestic firms. For example, ‘the pharmaceutical industry exports pharmaceuticals worth over $24.5 billion every year and relies on China for 70% of its Active Pharmaceu4cal Ingredients (APIs) imports. Without access to these APIs, [the] pharma industry will lose out on exports.’ (CS Academy). Therefore, it is highly unlikely that India would want to worsen its relationship with China.
However, India also fears Chinese domination, especially in the Indo-Pacific after China signed a security agreement with the Solomon Islands. Part of the agreement would allow the ‘potential deployment of [Chinese] forces near vital shipping lanes, raising concerns about a future Chinese military base’ (U.S. Department of Defence, 2023). According to Jay Panda, the vice president of BJP, a leading Indian political party, he views China’s aggressive actions such as the String of Pearls theory (part of the BRI project which India heavily opposes and has boycotted) and various agreements with island nations in the Pacific as an attempt to surround and isolate India. He also accuses China of ‘taking over countries, economies, and their political decision-making powers’, currently countries such as Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Mongolia, Zambia, Congo, Djibouti, Kenya, and Ethiopia have been victims of China’s debt trap policy. The most prominent example is Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port, which was built with a ‘$307 million loan at 6.3% interest’ (CSIS). Due to Sri Lanka not being able to repay its debt, it was forced to cede the port to China on a 99-year lease. Therefore, while India wants to maintain its relationships with China, it is also concerned and opposed to China’s growing domination in the region.
One instance of this dilemma is India’s reluctance to deal with the Sino-Indian border dispute even though China had clearly violated many agreements. This includes the incident of China building a road below Doka La, which violates the agreement ‘that status quo must be maintained in the Doklam area as of before March 1959’ (Wikipedia). According to Sushant Singh, a military expert in India’s leading public policy think tank, Centre for Policy Research, domestic coverage of the dispute is minimal and there has been no discussions in parliament about this issue. This may suggest that India wants to underplay the crisis as it seeks to maintain relationships with its biggest trading partner, while attempting to resolve the border dispute.
As a solution to this dilemma, India has already begun deepening its ties other nations to try to reduce its dependence on China. An example of is when ‘Khanij Bidesh India Ltd [a company formed by the Government of India] and Australia’s Critical Mineral Office signed an MoU with Australia for joint mineral explorations’ (ORF, 2024). India has also bilateral engagements with mineral-rich countries like Argentina, Chile, and the European Union, securing supply chains and reducing vulnerabilities (ibid).
In conclusion, I believe that in the near future, India will continue to deepen ties and improve relationships with the West and other democracies. This approach has already been seen in India’s involvement in the recently revived Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, consisting of India, the US, Japan, and Australia to combat China’s growing influence in the region. It will keep working towards its own economic emancipation from China and will attempt to become China’s economic competitor. However, regarding the border dispute, it might have to make some concessions as it is currently not in a state to severe trade with China nor to fight a war over the disputed area.
By Danbe Luk, Year 8